| Summary: | The behavior of sea ice is a strong function of ice strength which, in the central Arctic, depends on the relative fractions of multiyear and first-year ice coverage. A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model has been configured to include both multiyear and first-year ice. The model has been run for a 7-year period, 1979-1985, for which a satellite microwave record of multiyear sea ice coverage is available. The simulated concentrations of multiyear ice are slightly higher than the satellite-derived concentrations, although the total coverage of simulated multiyear ice agrees well with the satellite-derived coverage. Both the simulated and the satellite-derived coverages in the early 1980s show large interannual variations that represent potentially large perturbations in the mass balance of Arctic pack ice. These fluctuations are generally consistent in the model and satellite data, and they are generally consistent with year-to-year differences in the large-scale wind forcing. In at least some cases the wintertime distribution of multiyear ice is influenced by the pattern of ice drift as far back as the previous summer. The late December coverage of multiyear ice in the Alaskan region appears to foreshadow summer ice conditions in the same region. The short-term response to an intense synoptic system is considerably larger in the satellite data than in the model results.
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