| Summary: | The warmest water below parts of the Ross Ice Shelf resides in the lowest portion of the water column because of its high salinity. Vertical mixing caused by tidal stirring can thus induce ablation by lifting the warm but dense water into contact with the ice shelf. A numerical tidal simulation indicates that vertically well-mixed conditions predominate in the southeastern part of the sub-ice shelf cavity, where the water column thickness is small. Basal melting in this region is expected to be between 0.05 and 0.5 m/yr and will drive a thermohaline circulation having the following characteristics: high salinity shelf water (at - 1.8 C), formed by winter sea ice production in the open Ross Sea, flows along the seabed toward the tidal mixing fronts below the ice shelf; and meltwater (at -2.2 C), produced in the well-mixed region, flows out of the sub-ice shelf cavity along the ice shelf bottom. Sensitivity of this ablation process to climatic change is expected to be small because high salinity shelf water is constrained to have the sea surface freezing temperature.
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