Deglacial perspectives of future sea level for Singapore

• Published in: Communications Earth & Environment
• Main Authors: Shaw, Timothy Adam, Li, Tanghua, Ng, Trina, Cahill, Niamh, Chua, Stephen, Majewski, Jedrzej M., Nathan, Yudhishthra, Garner, Gregory G., Kopp, Robert E., Hanebuth, Till J. J., Switzer, Adam D., Horton, Benjamin Peter
• Other Authors: Asian School of the Environment, Earth Observatory of Singapore
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2023
• Subjects: Science::Geology; Future Sea Level; Singapore; Moe; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/168869; https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00868-5

Low elevation equatorial and tropical coastal regions are highly vulnerable to sea level rise. Here we provide probability perspectives of future sea level for Singapore using regional geological reconstructions and instrumental records since the last glacial maximum ~21.5 thousand years ago. We quantify magnitudes and rates of sea-level change showing deglacial sea level rose from ~121 m below present level and increased at averaged rates up to ~15 mm/yr, which reduced the paleogeographic landscape by ~2.3 million km2. Projections under a moderate emissions scenario show sea level rising 0.95 m at a rate of 7.3 mm/yr by 2150 which has only been exceeded (at least 99% probability) during rapid ice mass loss events ~14.5 and ~9 thousand years ago. Projections under a high emissions scenario incorporating low confidence ice-sheet processes, however, have no precedent during the last deglaciation. Ministry of Education (MOE) National Environmental Agency (NEA) National Research Foundation (NRF) Published version This research was supported by the Earth Observatory of Singapore grants M4430132.B50- 2014, M4430139.B50-2015, M4430188.B50-2016, M4430245.B50-2017 and M4430245.B50-2018. T.A.S., T.L., S.C., J.M.M., A.D.S. and B.P.H. were supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004 and MOE- T2EP50120-0007, the National Research Foundation Singapore, the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centers of Excellence initiative, and by Nanyang Techno- logical University. This Research/Project is supported by the National Research Foundation, Singapore, and National Environment Agency, Singapore under the National Sea Level Programme Funding Initiative (award No. USS-IF-2020-1). Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the views of the National Research Foundation, Singapore and the National Environment Agency, Singapore. N.C. research is conducted with the financial ...