Timing of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise by 1863

• Published in: Nature Communications
• Main Authors: Walker, Jennifer S., Kopp, Robert E., Little, Christopher M., Horton, Benjamin Peter
• Other Authors: Asian School of the Environment, Earth Observatory of Singapore
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2022
• Subjects: Engineering::Environmental engineering; Climate Change; Deglaciation; Canada; Moe; glacier*; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/163241; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28564-6

Sea-level rise is a significant indicator of broader climate changes, and the time of emergence concept can be used to identify when modern rates of sea-level rise emerged above background variability. Yet a range of estimates of the timing persists both globally and regionally. Here, we use a global database of proxy sea-level records of the Common Era (0-2000 CE) and show that globally, it is very likely that rates of sea-level rise emerged above pre-industrial rates by 1863 CE (P = 0.9; range of 1825 [P = 0.66] to 1873 CE [P = 0.95]), which is similar in timing to evidence for early ocean warming and glacier melt. The time of emergence in the North Atlantic reveals a distinct spatial pattern, appearing earliest in the mid-Atlantic region (1872-1894 CE) and later in Canada and Europe (1930-1964 CE). Regional and local sea-level changes occurring over different time periods drive the spatial pattern in emergence, suggesting regional processes underlie centennial-timescale sea-level variability over the Common Era. Ministry of Education (MOE) National Environmental Agency (NEA) National Research Foundation (NRF) Published version J.S.W. received funds from the David and Arleen McGlade Foundation. J.S.W., R.E.K., and C.L. were also supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (awards OCE1804999 and OCE-1805029). B.P.H. was funded by the Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative and the National Sea Level Program Funding Initiative (Award USS-IF-2020-1), administered by the National Environment Agency, Singapore and supported by the National Research Foundation, Singapore. The authors acknowledge PALSEA (Palaeo-Constraints on Sea-Level Rise), a working group of the International Union for Quaternary Sciences (INQUA), and Past Global Changes (PAGES), which in turn received support from the Swiss Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of ...