| Summary: | 2017 Spring. Includes bibliographical references. Winter blocking events are characterized by persistent and quasi-stationary patterns that re-direct precipitation and air masses, leading to long-lasting extreme winter weather. Studies have shown that the teleconnection patterns forced by the primary mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), influence extratropical factors associated with blocking, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. However, the influence of the MJO on winter blocking is not well understood. Understanding this relationship may improve the mid-range forecasting of winter blocking and the associated weather extremes. The impact of the MJO on Northern Hemisphere winter blocking is examined using a two-dimensional blocking index. Results suggest that all MJO phases demonstrate significant changes in west and central Pacific high-latitude blocking. East Pacific and Atlantic blocking are significantly suppressed following phase 3 of the MJO, characterized by anomalous convection in the tropical East Indian Ocean and suppressed convection in the west Pacific. A significant increase in east Pacific and Atlantic blocking follows the opposite-signed MJO heating during MJO phase 7. Over Europe, blocking is suppressed following MJO phase 4 and significantly increased after MJO phase 6. Results suggest that the European blocking increase may be due to two precursors: 1) a pre-existing anomalous Atlantic anticyclone, and 2) a negative Pacific North American (PNA) pattern triggered by the MJO. The influence of the MJO on winter blocking may be different if a change occurs to the basic state and/or MJO heating, such as during El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. MJO teleconnections during ENSO events are examined using composite analysis and a nonlinear baroclinic model and their influence of winter high-latitude blocking is discussed. Results demonstrate that the ENSO-altered MJO teleconnection patterns significantly influence Pacific and Atlantic ...
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