On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity

Tropical cyclone potential intensity (V[subscript p]) is controlled by thermodynamic air-sea disequilibrium and thermodynamic efficiency, which is a function of the sea surface temperature and the tropical cyclone’s outflow temperature. Observed trends and variability in V[subscript p] in each ocean...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Wing, Allison A., Emanuel, Kerry Andrew, Solomon, Susan
Other Authors: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Chemistry, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Emanuel, Kerry
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2015
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Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109503
Description
Summary:Tropical cyclone potential intensity (V[subscript p]) is controlled by thermodynamic air-sea disequilibrium and thermodynamic efficiency, which is a function of the sea surface temperature and the tropical cyclone’s outflow temperature. Observed trends and variability in V[subscript p] in each ocean basin are decomposed into contributions from these two components. Robustly detectable trends are found only in the North Atlantic, where tropical tropopause layer (TTL) cooling contributes up to a third of the increase in Vp. The contribution from disequilibrium dominates the few statistically significant V[subscript p] trends in the other basins. The results are sensitive to the data set used and details of the V[subscript p] calculation, reflecting uncertainties in TTL temperature trends and the difficulty of estimating V[subscript p] and its components. We also find that 20–71% of the interannual variability in V[subscript p] is linked to the TTL, with correlations between detrended time series of thermodynamic efficiency and V[subscript p] occurring over all ocean basins. National Science Foundation (U.S.) (grant AGS-1342810) National Science Foundation (U.S.) (AGS Postdoctoral Research Fellowship under award 1433251)