A Comprehensive Approach to Account for Weather Uncertainties in Ship Route Optimization

• Published in: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
• Main Authors: Roberto Vettor, Giovanni Bergamini, C. Guedes Soares
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute 2021
• Subjects: uncertainties; multi-objective optimization; ensemble weather forecast; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9121434

This work aims at defining in a probabilistic manner objectives and constraints typically considered in route optimization systems. Information about weather-related uncertainties is introduced by adopting ensemble forecast results. Classical reliability methods commonly used in structural analysis are adopted, allowing to achieve a simple yet effective evaluation of the probability of failure and the variability associated with the predicted fuel consumption and time of arrival. A quantitative example of application is provided, taking into consideration one of the main North Atlantic routes.