High Spatial Resolution Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Permafrost Thermal Conditions for the Beiluhe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

• Published in: Remote Sensing
• Main Authors: Jing Luo, Guoan Yin, Fujun Niu, Zhanju Lin, Minghao Liu
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute 2019
• Subjects: permafrost model; climate change; permafrost distribution; remote sensing; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; Active layer thickness; permafrost
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11111294

Permafrost is degrading on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) due to climate change. Permafrost degradation can result in ecosystem changes and damage to infrastructure. However, we lack baseline data related to permafrost thermal dynamics at a local scale. Here, we model climate change impacts on permafrost from 1986 to 2075 at a high resolution using a numerical model for the Beiluhe basin, which includes representative permafrost environments of the QTP. Ground surface temperatures are derived from air temperature using an n-factor vs Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) relationship. Soil properties are defined by field measurements and ecosystem types. The climate projections are based on long-term observations. The modelled ground temperature (MAGT) and active-layer thickness (ALT) are close to in situ observations. The results show a discontinuous permafrost distribution (61.4%) in the Beiluhe basin at present. For the past 30 years, the permafrost area has decreased rapidly, by a total of 26%. The mean ALT has increased by 0.46 m. For the next 60 years, 8.5–35% of the permafrost area is likely to degrade under different trends of climate warming. The ALT will probably increase by 0.38–0.86 m. The results of this study are useful for developing a deeper understanding of ecosystem change, permafrost development, and infrastructure development on the QTP.