| Summary: | Natural gas hydrate accumulations were confirmed in the Dongsha Area of the South China Sea by the Guangzhou Marine Geological Survey 2 (GMGS2) scientific drilling expedition in 2013. The drilling sites of GMGS2-01, -04, -05, -07, -08, -09, -11, -12, and -16 verified the existence of a hydrate-bearing layer. In this work gas production behavior was evaluated at GMGS2-8 by numerical simulation. The hydrate reservoir in the GMGS2-8 was characterized by dual hydrate layers and a massive hydrate layer. A single vertical well was considered as the well configuration, and depressurization was employed as the dissociation method. Analyses of gas production sensitivity to the production pressure, the thermal conductivity, and the intrinsic permeability were investigated as well. Simulation results indicated that the total gas production from the reference case is approximately 7.3 × 107 ST m3 in 30 years. The average gas production rate in 30 years is 6.7 × 103 ST m3/day, which is much higher than the previous study in the Shenhu Area of the South China Sea performed by the GMGS-1. Moreover, the maximum gas production rate (9.5 × 103 ST m3/day) has the same order of magnitude of the first offshore methane hydrate production test in the Nankai Trough. When production pressure decreases from 4.5 to 3.4 MPa, the volume of gas production increases by 20.5%, and when production pressure decreases from 3.4 to 2.3 MPa, the volume of gas production increases by 13.6%. Production behaviors are not sensitive to the thermal conductivity. In the initial 10 years, the higher permeability leads to a larger rate of gas production, however, the final volume of gas production in the case with the lowest permeability is the highest.
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