| Summary: | Underground storage facilities dug in permafrost, or ice cellars, are a natural means of preserving food in conditions of transport isolation and total energy dependence on imported fuel. In the context of rapidly changing natural conditions, such storage facilities become unstable due to warming and degradation of permafrost. Monitoring and modeling the thermal regime of permafrost soils around ice cellars will help assess the impact of predicted climatic changes and the effectiveness of engineering solutions to sustain these facilities. In this paper, we made an attempt to simulate and predict the thermal regime of permafrost around an ice cellar, located in the community of Lorino, NE Russia. We found out that by 2050 the depth of seasonal thawing of the soil above the storage facility will increase from 1.12–1.74 m to 1.19–2.53 m, while the mean annual ground temperature will increase by only 0.5 °C, regardless of the climatic scenario. Results of the predictive simulation demonstrate significant but not critical changes of the thermal state of permafrost around the ice cellar. In fact, incorrect maintenance of the facility may have higher impact to its stability than climate changes. Some recommendations on preventive measures on increasing the ice cellar stability were provided.
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