Antarctic station-based seasonal pressure reconstructions since 1905: 2. Variability and trends during the twentieth century

• Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• Main Authors: Fogt, R.L., Jones, J.M., Goergens, C.A., Jones, M.E., Witte, G.A., Lee, M.Y.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: American Geophysical Union 2016
• Subjects: Antarctic; Antarctic Peninsula; Pacific; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/98895/; https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/98895/3/FogtJonesetal_part2_revised1_160211.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024565

The Antarctic seasonal station-based pressure reconstructions evaluated in our companion paper are evaluated here to provide additional knowledge on Antarctic pressure variability during the twentieth century. In the period from 1905 to 1956, we find that the Hadley Centre gridded sea level pressure data set compared the best with our reconstructions, perhaps due to similar methods to estimate pressure without direct observations. The primary focus on the twentieth century Antarctic pressure variability was in summer and winter, as these were the seasons with the highest reconstruction skill. In summer, there is considerable interannual variability that was spatially uniform across all of Antarctica. Notable high pressure anomalies were found in the summers of 1911/1912 and 1925/1926; both summers correspond to negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode as well as El Niño events in the tropical Pacific. In addition, negative summer pressure trends during the last ~40 years across all of Antarctica are unique in the context of 30 year trends throughout the entire twentieth century, suggesting a strong component of anthropogenic forcing on the recent summer trends. In contrast, mean winter pressure is less variable from year to year during the early twentieth century, and there is less similarity between the pressure variations along the Antarctic Peninsula compared to the rest of the continent. No significant pressure trends were found consistently across all Antarctica (although some significant regional trends can be identified), and low-frequency, multidecadal-scale variability appears to dominate the historical pressure variations in this season.