Decline of Arctic sea ice: Evaluation and weighting of CMIP5 projections
Trends of Arctic September sea ice area (SSIA) are investigated through analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) data. The large range across models is reduced by weighting them according to how they match nine observed parameters. Calibration of this refined SSIA projection...
| Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Geophysical Union
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/80129/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/80129/1/Decline%20of%20Arctic%20sea%20ice%20Evaluation%20and%20weighting%20of%20CMIP5%20projections.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020593 |
| Summary: | Trends of Arctic September sea ice area (SSIA) are investigated through analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) data. The large range across models is reduced by weighting them according to how they match nine observed parameters. Calibration of this refined SSIA projection to observations of different 5 year averages suggests that nearly ice-free conditions, where ice area is less than 1 × 106 km2, will likely occur between 2039 and 2045, not accounting for internal variability. When adding internal variability, we demonstrate that ice-free conditions could occur as early as 2032. The 2013 rebound in ice extent has little effect on these projections. We also identify that our refined projection displays a change in the variability of SSIA, indicating a possible change in regime. |
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