Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for 6-Month Societal Costs in Older Community Care-Recipients in Multiple Countries; the IBenC Study

• Published in: Health Services Insights
• Main Authors: van Lier, Lisanne I., Bosmans, Judith E., van der Roest, Henriëtte G., Heymans, Martijn W., Garms-Homolová, Vjenka, Declercq, Anja, V Jónsson, Pálmi, van Hout, Hein P.J.
• Other Authors: aDepartment of General Practice and Medicine of Older People, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department on Aging, Amsterdam, Netherlands bDepartment of Health Sciences, Faculty of Science, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands cDepartment of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands dDepartment III, Economy and Law, Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft Berlin, Berlin, Germany eLUCAS, Centre for Care Research and Consultancy, and CESO, Center for Sociological Research, KU Leuven (University of Leuven), Leuven, Belgium fDepartment of Geriatrics, Landspitali University Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland gInstitute of Mental Health and Addiction (Trimbos Institute), Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands hUMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: SAGE Publications 2021
• Subjects: elderly people; Linear Mixed Models; Prediction model; societal costs; Aldraðir; Heilbrigðisþjónusta; Kostnaður; Kostnaðaráætlanir; Costs and Cost Analysis; Community Health Services; Health Services for the Aged; Aged; 80 and over; Iceland
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2336/621642; https://doi.org/10.1177/1178632920980462

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Download This study aims to develop and validate a prediction model of societal costs during a period of 6-months in older community care-recipients across multiple European countries. Participants were older community care-recipients from 5 European countries. The outcome measure was mean 6-months total societal costs of resource utilisation (healthcare and informal care). Potential predictors included sociodemographic characteristics, functional limitations, clinical conditions, and diseases/disorders. The model was developed by performing Linear Mixed Models with a random intercept for the effect of country and validated by an internal-external validation procedure. Living alone, caregiver distress, (I)ADL impairment, required level of care support, health instability, presence of pain, behavioural problems, urinary incontinence and multimorbidity significantly predicted societal costs during 6 months. The model explained 32% of the variation within societal costs and showed good calibration in Iceland, Finland and Germany. Minor model adaptations improved model performance in The Netherland and Italy. The results can provide a valuable orientation for policymakers to better understand cost development among older community care-recipients. Despite substantial differences of countries' care systems, a validated cross-national set of key predictors could be identified. European Commission European Commission Joint Research Centre