| Summary: | 本報告は，異常気象を引き起こす原因の解明と，それによってもたらされる災害の実態について述べたもので3部からなっている。第1部では， 2001年12月に生じた成層圏突然昇温現象(Stratospheric Sudden Warming; SSW) の予測可能性を調べ，SSW は2週間以前から予測可能であり，SSW発生期には予測の初期値に対する鋭敏性が極めて大きくなることを見出した。第2部では，2004年9月7日から10日にかけて日本列島を縦断し，各地に多大な被害をもたらした台風0418号による強風被害について，世界遺産である宮島の厳島神社における現地被害調査を中心に，気象状況や被害状況等を解析した結果について述べている。 This paper describes the analysis of various phenomena related with anomalous weather and its hazards, which consists of three parts. Predictability and a possible tropospheric precursor of a zonal-wavenumber (WN) 1 stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event occurring in December 2001 are examined in the first part, using all ensemble members of the 1-month forecasts carried out by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The second part shows the field investigation on the severe damages of structures including Itsukushima Shrine, a designated world heritage site on Miyajima Island in the prefecture of Hiroshima, Japan, induced by the typhoon 0418 which attacked on September 7, 2004. The last part show the results of several analyses, which were carried out to investigate abnormal typhoons hit Japanese territory in 2004. The seasonal march of the sea surface temperature (SST) were investigate and reproduce the meteorological situation by using a mesoscale numerical model. The Asian monsoon is also investigate to understand the abnormal weather in summer 本報告は，異常気象を引き起こす原因の解明と，それによってもたらされる災害の実態について述べたもので3部からなっている。第1部では， 2001年12月に生じた成層圏突然昇温現象(Stratospheric Sudden Warming; SSW) の予測可能性を調べ，SSW は2週間以前から予測可能であり，SSW発生期には予測の初期値に対する鋭敏性が極めて大きくなることを見出した。第2部では，2004年9月7日から10日にかけて日本列島を縦断し，各地に多大な被害をもたらした台風0418号による強風被害について，世界遺産である宮島の厳島神社における現地被害調査を中心に，気象状況や被害状況等を解析した結果について述べている。 This paper describes the analysis of various phenomena related with anomalous weather and its hazards, which consists of three parts. Predictability and a possible tropospheric precursor of a zonal-wavenumber (WN) 1 stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event occurring in December 2001 are examined in the first part, using all ensemble members of the 1-month forecasts carried out by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The second part shows the field investigation on the severe damages of structures including Itsukushima Shrine, a designated world heritage site on Miyajima Island in the prefecture of Hiroshima, Japan, induced by the typhoon 0418 which attacked on September 7, 2004. The last part show the results of several analyses, which were carried out to investigate abnormal typhoons hit Japanese territory in 2004. The seasonal march of the sea surface temperature (SST) were investigate and reproduce the meteorological situation by using a mesoscale numerical model. The Asian monsoon is also investigate to understand the abnormal weather in summer
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