Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensifying teleconnection patterns

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: MENTASCHI Lorenzo, VOUSDOUKAS Michail, VOUKOUVALAS Evangelos, DOSIO Alessandro, FEYEN Luc
• Language: English
• Published: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION 2017
• Subjects: Antarctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC105464; http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL072488/abstract; https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072488

In this study we conducted a comprehensive modelling analysis to identify global trends inextreme Wave Energy Flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emissionspathway (RCP8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in100-year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the Southern Temperate Zone,while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negativetrend. We show that the most significant long term trends of extreme WEF can be explained byintensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), El-NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The projected changes willhave broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management.Especially low-lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularlyvulnerable due to the combined effects of projected Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) and moreextreme wave activity. JRC.E.1 - Disaster Risk Management