Observed and Expected Climate Changes on the East European Plain and Their Influence on River Flow (Case Study of the Don River)

• Main Authors: E. A. Cherenkova, A. G. Georgiadi, A. N. Zolotokrylin, E. A. Kashutina, Е. А. Черенкова, А. Г. Георгиади, А. Н. Золотокрылин, Е. А. Кашутина
• Other Authors: The study of climate change on the East European Plain, as well as in the Don basin, was carried out within the framework of the state assignment for the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences AAAA-A19-1021051403088-5 (FMWS-2024-0001). The response of the Don runoff to climate change was studied within the framework of the state assignment for the Institute of Geography RAS of the Russian Academy of Sciences FMWS-2024-0007 (1021051703468-8). Predictive model assessments of changes in temperature characteristics in winter, including in the European North of Russia, were carried out with the support of the Russian Science Foundation (project no. 23-47-00104)., Исследование изменений климата на Восточно-Европейской равнине, а также в бассейне Дона проведено в рамках темы государственного задания Института географии РАН ААА-А-А19-1021051403088-5 (FMWS-2024-0001). Реакция стока Дона на климатические изменения изучалась в рамках темы государственного задания Института географии РАН FMWS-2024-0007 (1021051703468-8). Прогностические модельные оценки изменений температурных характеристик зимой, в том числе, на Европейском севере России, осуществлялись при поддержке Российского научного фонда (проект 23-47-00104).
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian
• Published: Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya 2025
• Subjects: Восточно-Европейская равнина; air temperature; precipitation; river runoff; thaws; climate models; East European Plain; температура воздуха; атмосферные осадки; речной сток; оттепели; климатические модели; Arctic
• Online Access: https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/2782; https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556624030075

The paper examines modern climate change over the East European Plain, and the response of river runoff to them in the Don basin. A significant warming of 1.8°C on average in winter at the level during the 1991–2020 period compared to 1961–1990 led to an increase in the number of days with positive air temperatures. There was an increase in the amount of total precipitation in autumn and winter, as well as the share of liquid precipitation in the winter season, with the greatest increase in the west and center of the study area. In the Don basin during the same period, the greatest warming in winter by 1.6°C was observed compared to other seasons and a slight increase in precipitation in all seasons except summer. There has been a noticeable intra-annual redistribution of the Don runoff since the 1990s compared to 1961–1990, which has changed the ratio of low-water vs high-water runoff. A significant increase in runoff was observed in all months of the year except April and May; in April it decreased significantly. The largest increase in runoff by 55.7% was observed in January. It was showed that almost half of the variations in Don runoff in January were due to thaws, and about 20% of its variability was due to changes in precipitation in autumn and winter, including liquid precipitation in December. The contribution of thaws in the formation of winter runoff, the frequency of which has increased 2.6 times over the past thirty years compared to the previous period, has doubled, and the influence of total precipitation, on the contrary, has decreased. Projections of climate models in the 21st century suggest a gradual advance of the border of the observation area of winter thaws to the northeast of the plain, leading to active snowmelt, an increase in river flow in winter and a decrease in floods. According to scenarios of moderate and aggressive anthropogenic impact on climate in the period 2061–2100, the designated boundaries may shift not only to the northwestern part of the Volga basin, but to the river ...