Assessment and Forecast of Nutrient Loading from the Russian Part of the Zapadnaya Dvina River Basin to Belarus

• Main Authors: V. Yu. Georgievsky, L. P. Alekseev, A. Yu. Bryukhanov, D. V. Georgievsky, P. A. Golosovsky, E. A. Grek, V. V. Kostko, O. M. Kuznetsova, T. G. Molchanova, N. S. Oblomkova, T. V. Fuksova, В. Ю. Георгиевский, Л. П. Алексеев, А. Ю. Брюханов, Д. В. Георгиевский, П. А. Голосовский, Е. А. Грек, В. В. Костко, О. М. Кузнецова, Т. Г. Молчанова, Н. С. Обломкова, Т. В. Фуксова
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian
• Published: Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya 2022
• Subjects: прогноз поступления и выноса; nutrients; loading; diffuse sources; assessment; forecast; миграция азота и фосфора; природные и антропогенные факторы; многолетние изменения; dvina
• Online Access: https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/1539; https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556622020042

Total nitrogen and phosphorus loading to the territory of the Republic of Belarus with the transboundary rivers of Zapadnaya Dvina basin (Zapadnaya Dvina, Kasplya, Svolnya, Usvyacha, Ushcha rivers) was evaluated based on materials of the state water bodies monitoring. It has been revealed that interannual changes in loading are mainly determined by the river runoff volume. This allowed assessing volumes of total nitrogen and phosphorus loading in years of different water yield. In the research basin, total nitrogen and phosphorus loading from point sources is 1–2% of the entire loading. Assessing the diffuse loading was carried out based on statistical data on land use within the basin, 2016. According to this data, 88% of the underlying surface is natural, and only 12% is anthropogenically altered. At the current level of water resources use and the existing landscapes, the total nitrogen loading to the hydrographic network of the basin is 4290 tons/year, at 95% runoff probability, and 11600 tons/year in high water years, at 5% probability; and 430 and 4300 total phosphorus tons/year, respectively. Natural sources make the main contribution, more than 60% of the total loading. Total nitrogen loading varies 2070 to 5710 tons/year at 95% and 5% runoff probability; and total phosphorus – 359 to 959 tons/year. The projections, based on the planned changes in agricultural production, subject to the introduction of the best available technologies, have shown an insignificant increase in nutrient loading to water bodies of the Russian part of Zapadnaya Dvina basin and a corresponding increase in their removal to Belarus up to 2%. На основе материалов государственного мониторинга водных объектов выполнена оценка массы переносимых трансграничными реками бассейна Западной Двины (рр. Западная Двина, Каспля, Свольня, Усвяча, Уща) валового азота и валового фосфора на территорию Республики Беларусь. Выявлено, что межгодовые изменения массы выноса определяются, главным образом, объемом речного стока, что позволило оценить ...