Thermal Impact in the Territory of Russia in the Middle of the 21st Century by Model Data
The assessment of heat waves’ number, intensity and duration change during summer (June-August) in the Russia territory for the “historical period” (1980-1999) and for the middle of the 21st century (2046-2055) was made according to the data of the global climate model (INMCM4) of the Institute of N...
Published in: | Izvestiya Rossiiskoi akademii nauk. Seriya geograficheskaya |
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Main Authors: | , |
Other Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | Russian |
Published: |
Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya
2020
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://izvestia.igras.ru/jour/article/view/1091 https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556620030115 |
Summary: | The assessment of heat waves’ number, intensity and duration change during summer (June-August) in the Russia territory for the “historical period” (1980-1999) and for the middle of the 21st century (2046-2055) was made according to the data of the global climate model (INMCM4) of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences. The definition of the extreme events’ criteria depends on the thresholds’ choice. In this paper, heat waves’ thresholds are considered as the values of the 95th percentile of maximum daily temperature distribution. An increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures exceeding the threshold values for the south of the European Russia and Western Siberia, Yakutia, the north of Chukotka, and Primorsky krai in the middle of the 21st century according to the “soft” scenario of RCP4.5 was revealed. Maximum changes are expected in Taimyr and Yamal. In the rest of the territory, the number of such days will be reduced. For the “hard” scenario of RCP8.5, more contrast changes in the similar locations are expected. Under the “hard” scenario, by the middle of the 21st century the maximum temperature in the heat wave will exceed 40°C in the south of the country. Оценка изменения частоты, интенсивности и продолжительности волн тепла в летний период (июнь-август) на территории России для “исторического периода” (1980—1999 гг.) и прогноза на середину XXI в. (2046—2055 гг.) проводилась по данным, полученным на глобальной климатической модели (INMCM4) Института вычислительной математики РАН. Определение критериев экстремальных явлений зависит от выбора пороговых значений. В настоящей работе рассматриваются пороговые значения для определения волн тепла как значения 95-й процентили распределения максимальной суточной температуры. Анализ полученных результатов показывает, что при “мягком” сценарии RCP4.5 в середине XXI в. ожидается увеличение числа дней с максимальными температурами, превышающими пороговые значения на юге Европейской территории России и Западной Сибири, в ... |
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