Numerical simulation of debris flow caused by Bashkara Glacier lake outburst flood in 2017

• Main Authors: A. Solodova S., D. Petrakov A., K. Puganov A., А. Солодова С., Д. Петраков А., К. Пуганов А.
• Other Authors: This work was conducted with the support of the state–funded research theme of the Faculty of Geography at Lomonosov Moscow State University 121051100164–0 “Evolution of the Cryosphere under Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impact”. The authors express their gratitude to Alla Sergeevna Turchaninova, a staff member of the Department of Cryolithology and Glaciology, for her valuable advice and constructive comments on this work. The authors also thank Martin Mergili, a staff member of the Institute of Geography and Regional Science at the University of Graz (Austria), for his assistance in mastering the r.avaflow model., Работа выполнена при поддержке госбюджетной темы НИР географического факультета МГУ имени М.В. Ломоносова 121051100164–0 “Эволюция криосферы при изменении климата и антропогенном воздействии”. Авторы выражают благодарность сотруднице кафедры криолитологии и гляциологии Алле Сергеевне Турчаниновой за ценные советы и конструктивные замечания по данной работе. Авторы также благодарят сотрудника Института географии и регионоведения Университета г. Грац (Австрия) Мартину Мергили за помощь в освоении модели r.avaflow.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian
• Published: IGRAS 2025
• Subjects: glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF); debris flow; two-dimensional numerical simulation; North Caucasus; Mt. Elbrus region; прорыв ледникового озера; прорывной паводок; селевой поток; двумерное математическое моделирование; Северный Кавказ; Приэльбрусье; Pleiades; The Cryosphere
• Online Access: https://ice-snow.igras.ru/jour/article/view/1453; https://doi.org/10.31857/S2076673424040043

Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most destructive natural hazards in high mountain areas. Mathematical modeling can help to assess the potential consequences of such outbursts, delineate hazard zones, and calculate characteristics of debris flows and floods. The study is focused on the Lake Bashkara outburst on September 1, 2017, forming a stony debris flow with a total volume of about 1*106 m3. The availability of extensive data on this outburst allows to simulate the event using the r.avaflow program. The software can account for up to three phases in the flow: liquid, solid and fine solid. In our case the number of phases was reduced to two: liquid and solid. The software utilizes the volume of entrained material, flow parameters, and pre- and post- GLOF Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) obtained by previous researchers. The results were compared with actual data on the outburst and previous numerical simulations. The limits of the debris flow hazard zone, depth values, flow speeds (averaging 6 m/s), and travel time to different control points correlate well with previous simulations and eye-witness estimates. Due to the involvement of solid material, the calculated values of flow speed and depth increased slightly comparatively to previous estimates. This work is the first attempt to calculate the pressure and kinetic energy of the flow for different sections in the channel, and to assess the amount of eroded and accumulated material, changed the terrain after the GLOF. The obtained inundation zone almost replicates the observed boundaries delineated using post-GLOF Pleiades image on September, 3. The tested model, r.avaflow, can be applied in the Mt. Elbrus region to assess the dynamics and impact zones of stony debris flows initiated by lake outbursts. С помощью численного моделирования в программе r.avaflow оценена динамика и зона затопления паводка и водокаменного селевого потока при прорыве оз. Башкара 2017 г. Рассчитаны скорости, глубины потока, а также впервые получены расчётное ...