Modeling the spatial distribution of the European land snail Cochlodina laminata (Gastropoda, Pulmonata, Clausiliidae) in the eastern part of the range

• Main Authors: V. V. Adamova, P. A. Ukrainskiy, В. В. Адамова, П. А. Украинский
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian
• Published: Lomonosov Moscow State University, School of Biology 2024
• Subjects: Восточная Европа; SDM; clausilids; regression models; machine learning; Eastern Europe; клаузилиды; регрессионные модели; машинное обучение; Montagu; Arctic
• Online Access: https://vestnik-bio-msu.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1336; https://doi.org/10.55959/MSU0137-0952-16-79-1-6

Species distribution modeling (SDM) allows to define the potential range and identify key factors that determine the habitat suitable areas. In this study, we made forecasts for the distribution of the European clausilid Cochlodina laminata (Montagu, 1803) in the eastern part of the range using SDM methods. Various algorithms are used to create models, including machine learning algorithms. We selected climatic factors and Earth remote sensing (ERS) data as predictors (extended vegetation index and land use). An ensemble forecast based on all models showed that the range of C. laminata is a wedge-shaped and largely coincides with the scheme proposed earlier by I.M. Likharev. However, in the eastern and southeastern parts the potential range turned out to be wider. The boundaries of the C. laminata potential distribution have been established in the forest-steppe and steppe zones, as well as in the Black Sea region and the Caucasus. The use of remote sensing data made it possible to identify suitable territories in more detail, which is especially important in the peripheral zones of the range. It is shown that the most significant factors in the distribution of the species in the studied area are the average annual temperature, temperature seasonality and precipitation of the warmest quarter Моделирование распространения видов позволяет определить потенциальный ареал и выявить ключевые факторы, определяющие пригодность территорий для обитания. В настоящем исследовании с применением методов SDM (species distribution modelling) созданы прогнозы распространения европейского вида клаузилид Cochlodina laminata (Montagu, 1803) в восточной части ареала. Для создания моделей использованы различные алгоритмы, в том числе алгоритмы машинного обучения. В качестве предикторов выбраны климатические факторы и данные дистанционного зондирования Земли: расширенный вегетационный индекс и тип земельных угодий. Ансамблевый прогноз на основе всех моделей показал, что ареал C. laminata имеет клиновидную форму и во многом совпадает ...