Estimation of fast ice thickness multiyear variability in the Russian Arctic seas according to polar stations data

• Main Authors: A. B. Timofeeva, M. V. Sharatunova, U. V. Prokhorova, А. Б. Тимофеева, М. В. Шаратунова, У. В. Прохорова
• Other Authors: The work was carried out within the framework of section 5.1.2 Development of existing and new methods and technologies for long-term (monthly and seasonal) forecasting of the ice-hydrological regime elements of the Arctic seas, down the rivers and estuaries in the climate change conditions. The authors are grateful to E.U. Mironov, Head of the Department of Ice Regime and Forecasts, for help in preparing the article., Исследование выполнено в рамках программы ЦНТП № 5.1.2. Развитие существующих и разработка новых методов и технологий долгосрочного (месячного и сезонного) прогнозирования элементов ледово-гидрологического режима арктических морей, низовьев и устьевых областей рек в условиях климатических изменений. Авторы признательны заведующему отделом ледового режима и прогнозов Е.У. Миронову за помощь при подготовке статьи.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian
• Published: Государственный научный центр Российской Федерации Арктический и антарктический научно-исследовательский институт 2023
• Subjects: толщина морского льда; fast ice; ice thickness; polar stations; sum of frost degree-days; максимальная толщина льда; полярные станции; припай; сумма градусо-дней мороза; Arctic; Chukchi; East Siberian Sea; Kara Sea; laptev; Sea ice; The Cryosphere
• Online Access: https://www.aaresearch.science/jour/article/view/545; https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2023-69-3-310-330

The warming process in the Arctic steadily continues and significantly affects the entire regime of sea ice cover development. Most of the sea ice thickness studies are based on numerical modeling and information obtained using satellite radar altimetry such that these estimations require validation by means of contact measurements. However, the comparison of data is difficult due to the irregularity and locality of measurements. This makes contact measurements at polar stations highly relevant. In this study, contact measurements were carried out by drilling for each 10-day period during winter season, they are quite accurate and have a long observations series in the same regime conditions from year to year, allowing one to assess the long-term variability of fast ice thickness. In this study, we analyzed the data series of the fast ice thickness and the surface air temperature at 16 Roshydromet land-based polar stations in the Russian Arctic Seas. The data series were taken into account from the beginning of regular measurements (the end of the 1930s, the year of the beginning varies depending on the station) to 2020 for the period November–May. Observations for the recent 15-year period (2005–2020) are compared with those prior to 2004 (from the 1930s–40s). Since 2005 sea ice thicknesses at the moment of maximum development (maximum sea ice thickness) have decreased by 13 % in the Kara Sea, by 9 % in East Siberian Sea, by 5 % in the Laptev and Chukchi Seas in comparison with the previous period. The sea ice thickness development process has become much slower, transition between the sequential stages of development is shifted by 10–20 days (in some points 30–40 days) later. The surface air temperature is on average 2,7 °C higher than for the previous period at all sea stations. The most significant changes (1.4–6.1 °C) are observed in the autumn season (October–December), all the stations show the lowest difference in the summer months. Averaged over the stations, the sum of the frost degree-days (SFDD) ...