Approach to solving the problem of sea level forecasting off Cape Kamenny in the Ob’ Bay

• Main Authors: G. N. Voinov, N. V. Golovin, N. V. Kubyshkin, M. Yu. Kulakov, A. A. Skutin, K. G. Smirnov, O. V. Khaimina, Г. Н. Войнов, Н. В. Головин, Н. В. Кубышкин, М. Ю. Кулаков, А. А. Скутин, К. Г. Смирнов, О. В. Хаймина
• Other Authors: In preparing the article the authors used the results obtained within the framework of the contractual works (contract №17/12-01 dated December 17, 2021 between “Onego Shipping Ltd” LLC and “Arctic Shelf Consulting” LLC, contract № 137060/2022 dated December 28, 2021 between “Arctic Shelf Consulting” LLC and FSBI “AARI”) and in the course of project 5.1.1 of the Roshydromet R&D works plan for 2020–2024., При подготовке статьи использованы результаты, полученные в рамках хоздоговорных работ (договор № 17/12-01 от «17» декабря 2021 г. между ООО «Онего Шиппинг Лтд» и ООО «Арктик Шельф Консалтинг», договор № 137060/2022 от 28 декабря 2021 года между ООО «Арктик Шельф Консалтинг» и ФГБУ «ААНИИ»), а также в ходе выполнения проекта 5.1.1 плана НИТР Росгидромета на 2020–2024 гг.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian
• Published: Государственный научный центр Российской Федерации Арктический и антарктический научно-исследовательский институт 2023
• Subjects: сезонная изменчивость прилива; Ob’ Bay; sea level observations; seasonal variability of the tide; Обская губа; прогноз уровня; Arctic; Ob' Bay
• Online Access: https://www.aaresearch.science/jour/article/view/497; https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2023-69-1-29-43

The problem of short-term sea level forecasting in the area of Сape Kamenny in the Ob’ Bay has become important since the Novoportovsky terminal (known as “Arctic Gate”) began operating for year-round oil shipment. The tankers loading the oil from the terminal have to pass through relatively shallow waters, located to the north, limiting the vessels draft. Thereby a short-term water level forecast is required relative to the lowest theoretical level for tankers loading at the terminal. The year-round hourly observations using buoy level gauges with a satellite channel of data transmission are organized for quick level monitoring directly in the area of Cape Kamenny. The results of the harmonic analysis of water level observations in the area of Cape Kamenny for 2016–2021 showed significant seasonal variability of amplitudes and phases of the wave М2 in the annual cycle, as well as their interannual variability due to various ice conditions of the Ob’ Bay (light, medium, heavy). Based on these results, the processing and analysis of observations data over the last month are performed by the end of each month. According to these results, the current values of harmonic constants, dependent on actual ice conditions are specified and calculation of the tide is carried out for the next month. The calculation of the forecast values of the total level is composed of calculated tide and short term (with a lead time of up to 5 days) forecast of non-periodic level fluctuations using the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of joint water and ice circulation AARI-IOCM. At the final stage of the forecast preparation, the predicted level, usually calculated relative to the conditional long term average annual value, is bound to the lowest theoretical level (according to the current values of the level gauge) and transferred to the operator of the terminal and to the tanker. The hourly observations of water level in the area of Cape Kamenny and level forecasting have been carried out since 2017 and are still continuing. ...