Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Acosta Navarro, J. C., Ortega, P., Batté, L., Smith, D., Bretonnière, P. A., Guemas, V., Massonnet, F., Sicardi, V., Torralba, V., Tourigny, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
• Other Authors: Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), UK METOFFICE EXETER GBR, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research Louvain (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute Louvain-La-Neuve (ELI), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), ANR-17-MPGA-0003,ASET,Atmosphere - Sea ice Exchanges and Teleconections(2017)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces; environment; Arctic; Kara Sea; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03738304; https://hal.science/hal-03738304/document; https://hal.science/hal-03738304/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202020%20-%20Acosta%20Navarro%20-%20Link%20Between%20Autumnal%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20and%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Winter.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753

International audience Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state-of-the-art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact of the Arctic sea ice state during November on the sea level pressure (SLP), surface temperature, and precipitation skill during the following winter. Interannual variability of the November Barents and Kara Sea ice is associated with an important fraction of December to February (DJF) prediction skill in regions of Eurasia. We further show that skill related to sea ice in these regions is accompanied with enhanced skill of DJF SLP in western Russia, established by a sea ice-atmosphere teleconnection mechanism. The teleconnection is strongest when atmospheric blocking conditions in Scandinavia/western Russia in November reduce a systematic SLP bias that is present in all systems.