Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments

• Published in: Geoscientific Model Development
• Main Authors: Harrison, Sandy, Gaillard, Marie-José, Stocker, Benjamin, Vander Linden, Marc, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Boles, Oliver, Braconnot, Pascale, Dawson, Andria, Fluet-Chouinard, Etienne, Kaplan, Jed, O, Kastner, Thomas, Pausata, Francesco, Robinson, Erick, Whitehouse, Nicki, Madella, Marco, Morrison, Kathleen
• Other Authors: University of Bristol Bristol, Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences Oldenburg, University of Oldenburg, Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), University of Cambridge UK (CAM), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology (Penn Museum), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Department of Earth System Science Stanford (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Department of Earth Sciences Hong kong, The University of Hong Kong (HKU), Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main-Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research - Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Leibniz Association-Leibniz Association, Centre ESCER, Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), University of Wyoming, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences Plymouth (SoGEES), Plymouth University, Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), ANR-15-JCLI-0003,PACMEDY,PAlaeo-Constraints on Monsoon Evolution and Dynamics(2015)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces; environment; ice core
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-02524476; https://hal.science/hal-02524476/document; https://hal.science/hal-02524476/file/gmd-13-805-2020.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020

International audience Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Existing scenarios of LULC changes during the Holocene are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to refine these assumptions and estimates. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k initiative is working towards improved reconstructions of LULC globally. In this paper, we document the types of archaeological data that are being collated and how they will be used to improve LULC reconstructions. Given the large methodological uncertainties involved, both in reconstructing LULC from the archaeological data and in implementing these reconstructions into global scenarios of LULC, we propose a protocol to evaluate Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 806 S. P. Harrison et al.: Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes the revised scenarios using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and climate. Further evaluation of the revised scenarios involves carbon cycle model simulations to determine whether the LULC reconstructions are consistent with constraints provided by ice core records of CO 2 evolution and modern-day LULC. Finally, the protocol outlines how the improved LULC reconstructions will be used in palaeoclimate simulations in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to quantify the magnitude of anthro-pogenic impacts on climate through time and ultimately to improve the realism of Holocene climate simulations.