Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric temperatures and their trends for the recent past

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Austin, John, Wilson, R.J., Akiyoshi, Hideharu, Bekki, Slimane, Butchart, N., Claud, Chantal, Fomichev, V.I., Forster, P., Garcia, R.R., Gillett, N.P., Keckhut, Philippe, Langematz, U., Manzini, E., Nagashima, T., Randel, W.J., Rozanov, E., Shibata, K., Shine, K.P., Struthers, H., Thompson, D.W.J., Wu, F., Yoden, S.
• Other Authors: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Met Office Climate Research Division, United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Department of Earth and Space Science and Engineering York University - Toronto (ESSE), York University Toronto, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science Leeds (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR), Institut für Meteorologie Berlin, Freie Universität Berlin, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Palermo
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2009
• Subjects: Temperature; Stratosphere; Climate model; [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph]; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00404260; https://hal.science/hal-00404260/document; https://hal.science/hal-00404260/file/Austin_et_al-2009-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038462

International audience Temperature results from multi-decadal simulations of coupled chemistry climate models for the recent past are analyzed using multi-linear regression including a trend, solar cycle, lower stratospheric tropical wind, and volcanic aerosol terms. The climatology of the models for recent years is in good agreement with observations for the troposphere but the model results diverge from each other and from observations in the stratosphere. Overall, the models agree better with observations than in previous assessments, primarily because of corrections in the observed temperatures. The annually averaged global and polar temperature trends simulated by the models are generally in agreement with revised satellite observations and radiosonde data over much of their altitude range. In the global average, the model trends underpredict the radiosonde data slightly at the top of the observed range. Over the Antarctic some models underpredict the temperature trend in the lower stratosphere, while others overpredict the trends.