Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere

• Main Authors: Elsner, J. B., Tsonis, A. A.
• Other Authors: Dept. of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee (FSU), Dept. of Geosciences, University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 1994
• Subjects: [PHYS.ASTR.CO]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO]; [SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]; [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00301718; https://hal.science/hal-00301718/document; https://hal.science/hal-00301718/file/npg-1-41-1994.pdf

International audience A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.