Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
International audience A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space -...
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-00301718v1 2023-11-12T04:22:09+01:00 Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere Elsner, J. B. Tsonis, A. A. Dept. of Meteorology Florida State University Tallahassee (FSU) Dept. of Geosciences University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee 1994 https://hal.science/hal-00301718 https://hal.science/hal-00301718/document https://hal.science/hal-00301718/file/npg-1-41-1994.pdf en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU) hal-00301718 https://hal.science/hal-00301718 https://hal.science/hal-00301718/document https://hal.science/hal-00301718/file/npg-1-41-1994.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1023-5809 EISSN: 1607-7946 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics https://hal.science/hal-00301718 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1994, 1 (1), pp.41-44 [PHYS.ASTR.CO]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO] [SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 1994 ftinsu 2023-10-25T16:26:53Z International audience A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
[PHYS.ASTR.CO]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO] [SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[PHYS.ASTR.CO]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO] [SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Elsner, J. B. Tsonis, A. A. Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.ASTR.CO]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO] [SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation. |
author2 |
Dept. of Meteorology Florida State University Tallahassee (FSU) Dept. of Geosciences University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Elsner, J. B. Tsonis, A. A. |
author_facet |
Elsner, J. B. Tsonis, A. A. |
author_sort |
Elsner, J. B. |
title |
Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere |
title_short |
Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere |
title_full |
Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere |
title_fullStr |
Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere |
title_full_unstemmed |
Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere |
title_sort |
empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
1994 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00301718 https://hal.science/hal-00301718/document https://hal.science/hal-00301718/file/npg-1-41-1994.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 1023-5809 EISSN: 1607-7946 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics https://hal.science/hal-00301718 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1994, 1 (1), pp.41-44 |
op_relation |
hal-00301718 https://hal.science/hal-00301718 https://hal.science/hal-00301718/document https://hal.science/hal-00301718/file/npg-1-41-1994.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1782337296776822784 |