Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere

International audience A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space -...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Elsner, J. B., Tsonis, A. A.
Other Authors: Dept. of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee (FSU), Dept. of Geosciences, University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: HAL CCSD 1994
Subjects:
[PHYS.ASTR.CO]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO]
[SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences
North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
Online Access:https://hal.science/hal-00301718
https://hal.science/hal-00301718/document
https://hal.science/hal-00301718/file/npg-1-41-1994.pdf
Description
Summary:International audience A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

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