Impact of a potential avian flu outbreak in Ethiopia: a multimarket model analysis

The potential impact of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in Ethiopia is assessed, specifically on the country’s poultry and associated sectors. Ethiopia has not yet experienced an HPAI outbreak but has experienced a scare. An HPAI outbreak would cause a supply and demand shock to...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Thomas, Marcelle, Diao, Xinshen, Roy, Devesh, Thomas, Marcelle;
Format: Manuscript
Language:English
Published: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI); Royal Veterinary College (RVC) 2009
Subjects:
ETHIOPIA
AFRICA
INDONESIA
AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA
highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)
poultry sector
Avian flu
Online Access:http://www.ifpri.org/publication/controlling-avian-flu-and-protecting-people-s-livelihoods-africa-and-indonesia-1
http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/125002
Description
Summary:The potential impact of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in Ethiopia is assessed, specifically on the country’s poultry and associated sectors. Ethiopia has not yet experienced an HPAI outbreak but has experienced a scare. An HPAI outbreak would cause a supply and demand shock to the poultry sector. Whereas supply shocks would be related directly to the disease and be local, demand shocks would be more dispersed across regions. Results of a dynamic spatially disaggregated multimarket model indicate that, given the poultry sector’s small contribution to the Ethiopian economy, the likely overall effect of an HPAI outbreak on the economy would be small. Importantly, for the same reason that aggregate impacts are likely to be small, the livelihood impact could be large, because poor households participate significantly in poultry production. Non-PR IFPRI2 MTID; DSGD

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