Expanding eurozone or not?

• Main Authors: Stoupos, Nikolaos, Στούπος, Νικόλαος
• Format: Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Πανεπιστήμιο Μακεδονίας 2019
• Subjects: Ευρωζώνη; Συναλλαγματικές ισοτιμίες ισοροπίας; Μοντέλα GARCH; Ευρωπαϊκή ενοποίηση; Μοντέλιο διόρθωσης σφάλματος; Eurozone; Exchange rates; Garch models; European integration; Error correction models; Κοινωνικές Επιστήμες; Οικονομικά και Επιχειρήσεις; Social Sciences; Economics and Business; Iceland
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10442/hedi/45352; https://doi.org/10.12681/eadd/45352

The European Project was the most important challenge after the end of World War II in the European continent. However, the European integration has been decelerated especially after the euro-crisis in 2010. Plenty of EU member-states turned to be very sceptical regarding to participation in the European Monetary Union. The principal aim of this doctoral thesis is to examine which EU and EEA countries could join the Euro Area, from a financial viewpoint. In addition, we attempt to explore if the cohesion of the Euro Area is stable. This means that we investigate if the Eurozone countries belong, in effect, to the monetary union. We used a combination of nominal, real and real effective exchange rates in relation to the special characteristic of each country. Our empirical methodology relied on the use of Error Correction model and family GARCH models. The ECM was the mean equation and the GARCH model was the conditional variance equation. Our empirical evidence highly supports that the cohesion of the Euro Area is strong. Germany, France and Italy constitute the “heart” of the monetary union, since they significantly influence the exchange rate of the euro. Moreover, Romania, Poland, Denmark, Norway and Sweden could join the Eurozone since their currencies is bound to the euro, from a financial viewpoint. On the other hand, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Hungary, Croatia, Iceland and the United Kingdom could not participate in the EMU, since the euro has negative impact reactions on their currencies. Finally, Switzerland shows historically an exchange rate independence from euro. To Ευρωπαϊκό Εγχείρημα αποτελεί την πιο σημαντική πρόκληση στην Ευρώπη έπειτα από το τέλος του Β ́ Παγκοσμίου Πολέμου. Η Ευρωπαϊκή ολοκλήρωση επιβραδύνθηκε σε σημαντικό βαθμό από την κρίση χρέους στην Ευρωζώνη το 2010. Αρκετά κράτη- μέλη της ΕΕ έγιναν αρκετά επιφυλακτικά όσον αφορά την συμμετοχή τους στην Οικονομική και Νομισματική Ένωση. Κύριος στόχος της συγκεκριμένης διδακτορικής διατριβής ...