Εκτίμηση της εθνικής ασφάλειας λόγω της κλιματικής αλλαγής

• Main Authors: Chairetis, Nektarios, Χαιρέτης, Νεκτάριος
• Format: Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis
• Language: Greek
• Published: Technical University of Crete (TUC) 2017
• Subjects: Κλιματική Ασφάλεια; Climate Security; Επιστήμες Μηχανικού και Τεχνολογία; Επιστήμη Μηχανολόγου Μηχανικού; Περιβαλλοντική Μηχανική; Engineering and Technology; Mechanical Engineering; Environmental Engineering; Ocean acidification
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10442/hedi/41150; https://doi.org/10.12681/eadd/41150

Climate change has repercussions on national security. Yet, no widely accepted definition of climate security exists to date. In this paper we present a mathematical model that defines and assesses climate security as a function of 38 indicators of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The model combines the indicators using statistical methods and fuzzy logic which encapsulates the subjective part of the assessment, to derive an overall climate security score from 0 to 1. A sensitivity analysis points to those indicators with the highest potential to improve climate security for each country. We use this model to assess climate security for 191 countries, all signatories of the Paris Agreement.Climate change could impact national security negatively. National security, besides safety and conflict, is viewed in a broader sense encompassing human welfare that could be threatened, for example by extreme weather phenomena, ocean acidification or sea level rise. However, national security is understood as a mostly qualitative concept. It would, therefore, be important to define it quantitatively and assess the impact of climate change on national security mathematically. Such an effort ought to address climate security from its analytical and normative sides. The impact of climate change on national security is increasingly recognized by national security experts, while several studies go as far as suggesting that there is a linkage between climate change and armed conflict. The resulting rapid demographic change and the degraded living conditions along with the lack of government support encouraged instability, social unrest, and finally the civil war outbreak. In this paper we have developed a global model of climate security of countries that encompasses seven sectors or dimensions: water security (WATER), food security (FOOD), energy security (ENERGY), sea level rise impact on inhabited land (LAND), social stability (CONFLICT), health (HEALTH), and economic resilience (ECONOMY). The goal of the model is ...