| Summary: | Tropical cyclones (TC), especially when their intensity reaches hurricane scale, can become a costly natural hazard. Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone intensity is very difficult because of inadequate observations on TC structures, poor understanding of physical processes, coarse model resolution and inaccurate initial conditions, etc. This study aims to tackle two factors that account for the underperformance of current TC intensity forecasts: (1) inadequate observations of TC structures, and (2) deficient understanding of the underlying physical processes governing TC intensification. To tackle the problem of inadequate observations of TC structures, efforts have been made to extract vertical and horizontal structural parameters of latent heat release from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) data products. A case study of Hurricane Isabel (2003) was conducted first to explore the feasibility of using the 3D TC structure information in predicting TC intensification. Afterwards, several structural parameters were extracted from 53 TRMM PR 2A25 observations on 25 North Atlantic TCs during the period of 1998 to 2003. A new generation of multi-correlation data mining algorithm (Apriori and its variations) was applied to find roles of the latent heat release structure in TC intensification. The results showed that the buildup of TC energy is indicated by the height of the convective tower, and the relative low latent heat release at the core area and around the outer band. Adverse conditions which prevent TC intensification include the following: (1) TC entering a higher latitude area where the underlying sea is relative cold, (2) TC moving too fast to absorb the thermal energy from the underlying sea, or (3) strong energy loss at the outer band. When adverse conditions and amicable conditions reached equilibrium status, tropical cyclone intensity would remain stable. The dataset from Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) covering the period of 1982-2003 and ...
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