Selected Key Aspects of Climate Change in Stabilization Scenarios
This thesis aims at a deeper understanding of committed climate change and the climate response in mitigation scenarios. Focusing on selected key aspects of climate change climate models are employed to study global mean changes as well as regional changes of different subsystems. Therefore, a fully...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | , , , |
| Format: | Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2015
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/11940 https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-16138 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:188-fudissthesis000000098964-9 |
| Summary: | This thesis aims at a deeper understanding of committed climate change and the climate response in mitigation scenarios. Focusing on selected key aspects of climate change climate models are employed to study global mean changes as well as regional changes of different subsystems. Therefore, a fully-coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model is employed simulating climate change under increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and stabilization of GHG concentrations thereafter. Additionally, an ensemble of ocean- atmosphere general circulation models and Earth system models is analyzed under a mitigation scenario that is consistent with the target of limiting global mean temperature change to 2°C relative to the pre-industrial era. To identify the portion of climate change that can be avoided, simulations of the mitigation scenario are compared to a business-as-usual scenario. This thesis shows that the 2°C target - commonly assumed for example by policy makers to be suitable to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system - alone will not be sufficient to avoid all adverse impacts of climate change. This applies to the global scale, with the effect of mitigation on the hydrological cycle being weaker than the effect on surface temperature. It also applies to the regional scale in very sensitive regions. While some adverse effects such as excessive melting of Arctic summer sea ice resulting in a nearly ice free Arctic can be avoided, other aspects such as a strong reduction in the extent of Taiga and Tundra may evolve even under strong mitigation efforts. Furthermore, climate commitment plays an important role for the temporal evolution during the 21st century (e.g., temperature increases despite of decreasing GHG emissions) and beyond the scenario period (e.g., sea level rise). Ziel dieser Dissertation ist es, ein tieferes Verständnis für Klima-Commitment - d.h. eine in der Vergangenheit oder rezent verursachte Klimaänderung, die in der Zukunft eintreffen wird - und ... |
|---|