Spatial Analyses of Climatological Effects on Hurricane Intensification Rates
The aim of these studies is to determine spatial climatological effects on hurricane intensification rates. Previous studies have noted that the skill in predict a hurricane's track has improved at a much greater rate than the skill to predict its intensity. There is even less research concerni...
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Tallahassee, Florida: Florida State University
2016
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ftfloridasu:oai:diginole.lib.fsu.edu:fsu_360354 2024-06-09T07:48:10+00:00 Spatial Analyses of Climatological Effects on Hurricane Intensification Rates Fraza, Erik (authoraut) Elsner, James B. (professor directing dissertation) Hart, Robert E. (Robert Edward) (university representative) Uejio, Christopher K. (committee member) Zhao, Tingting (committee member) Florida State University (degree granting institution) College of Social Sciences and Public Policy (degree granting college) Department of Geography (degree granting department) 2016 1 online resource (127 pages) computer https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu%3A360354/datastream/TN/view/Spatial%20Analyses%20of%20Climatological%20Effects%20on%20Hurricane%20Intensification%20Rates.jpg English eng eng Tallahassee, Florida: Florida State University fsu:360354 (IID) FSU_2016SP_Fraza_fsu_0071E_13062 (URL) http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_2016SP_Fraza_fsu_0071E_13062 https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu%3A360354/datastream/TN/view/Spatial%20Analyses%20of%20Climatological%20Effects%20on%20Hurricane%20Intensification%20Rates.jpg This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s). The copyright in theses and dissertations completed at Florida State University is held by the students who author them. Physical geography Geography Meteorology Text 2016 ftfloridasu 2024-05-10T08:08:14Z The aim of these studies is to determine spatial climatological effects on hurricane intensification rates. Previous studies have noted that the skill in predict a hurricane's track has improved at a much greater rate than the skill to predict its intensity. There is even less research concerning hurricane intensification rates, let alone research done spatially and climatologically. Therefore, the research herein aims to understand what drives hurricane intensification rates. This is done by using spatial climatological analyses to determine the effects that intensity, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), ocean heat content (OHC), El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have on hurricane intensification rates. Using both equal-area hexagons and raster techniques, hurricane track data is plotted spatially. SST, ocean salinity, and OHC values are also represented on a spatial grid. Finally, climate variables are represented temporally as mean yearly values. A generalized linear model from a gamma family and a logarithmic link function, as well as a full probability model are used to determine the effects that the variables of interest have on hurricane intensification rates. It is found that intensity has a positive effect on hurricane intensification rates with an average increase of 0.024 ± 0.0032 m s⁻¹ in intensification for a 1 m s⁻¹ increase in intensity. SST is also found to have a positive effect on intensification rates with an average increase in hurricane intensification of 16% for a 1° C increase in mean SST. It is also found that decreased salinity may have a positive effect on hurricane intensification rates by inhibiting vertical mixing. In the North Atlantic basin, it is found that the NAO has a negative effect on intensification rates of ‒0.18 m s⁻¹ h⁻¹ per 1 SD, while ENSO and MJO do not have a statistically significant effect. In the Eastern North Pacific basin, it is found that both the NAO ... Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Florida State University: DigiNole Commons Pacific |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Florida State University: DigiNole Commons |
op_collection_id |
ftfloridasu |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical geography Geography Meteorology |
spellingShingle |
Physical geography Geography Meteorology Spatial Analyses of Climatological Effects on Hurricane Intensification Rates |
topic_facet |
Physical geography Geography Meteorology |
description |
The aim of these studies is to determine spatial climatological effects on hurricane intensification rates. Previous studies have noted that the skill in predict a hurricane's track has improved at a much greater rate than the skill to predict its intensity. There is even less research concerning hurricane intensification rates, let alone research done spatially and climatologically. Therefore, the research herein aims to understand what drives hurricane intensification rates. This is done by using spatial climatological analyses to determine the effects that intensity, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), ocean heat content (OHC), El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have on hurricane intensification rates. Using both equal-area hexagons and raster techniques, hurricane track data is plotted spatially. SST, ocean salinity, and OHC values are also represented on a spatial grid. Finally, climate variables are represented temporally as mean yearly values. A generalized linear model from a gamma family and a logarithmic link function, as well as a full probability model are used to determine the effects that the variables of interest have on hurricane intensification rates. It is found that intensity has a positive effect on hurricane intensification rates with an average increase of 0.024 ± 0.0032 m s⁻¹ in intensification for a 1 m s⁻¹ increase in intensity. SST is also found to have a positive effect on intensification rates with an average increase in hurricane intensification of 16% for a 1° C increase in mean SST. It is also found that decreased salinity may have a positive effect on hurricane intensification rates by inhibiting vertical mixing. In the North Atlantic basin, it is found that the NAO has a negative effect on intensification rates of ‒0.18 m s⁻¹ h⁻¹ per 1 SD, while ENSO and MJO do not have a statistically significant effect. In the Eastern North Pacific basin, it is found that both the NAO ... |
author2 |
Fraza, Erik (authoraut) Elsner, James B. (professor directing dissertation) Hart, Robert E. (Robert Edward) (university representative) Uejio, Christopher K. (committee member) Zhao, Tingting (committee member) Florida State University (degree granting institution) College of Social Sciences and Public Policy (degree granting college) Department of Geography (degree granting department) |
format |
Text |
title |
Spatial Analyses of Climatological Effects on Hurricane Intensification Rates |
title_short |
Spatial Analyses of Climatological Effects on Hurricane Intensification Rates |
title_full |
Spatial Analyses of Climatological Effects on Hurricane Intensification Rates |
title_fullStr |
Spatial Analyses of Climatological Effects on Hurricane Intensification Rates |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatial Analyses of Climatological Effects on Hurricane Intensification Rates |
title_sort |
spatial analyses of climatological effects on hurricane intensification rates |
publisher |
Tallahassee, Florida: Florida State University |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu%3A360354/datastream/TN/view/Spatial%20Analyses%20of%20Climatological%20Effects%20on%20Hurricane%20Intensification%20Rates.jpg |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
fsu:360354 (IID) FSU_2016SP_Fraza_fsu_0071E_13062 (URL) http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_2016SP_Fraza_fsu_0071E_13062 https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu%3A360354/datastream/TN/view/Spatial%20Analyses%20of%20Climatological%20Effects%20on%20Hurricane%20Intensification%20Rates.jpg |
op_rights |
This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s). The copyright in theses and dissertations completed at Florida State University is held by the students who author them. |
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1801379772267233280 |