Spatial Analyses of Climatological Effects on Hurricane Intensification Rates

• Other Authors: Fraza, Erik (authoraut), Elsner, James B. (professor directing dissertation), Hart, Robert E. (Robert Edward) (university representative), Uejio, Christopher K. (committee member), Zhao, Tingting (committee member), Florida State University (degree granting institution), College of Social Sciences and Public Policy (degree granting college), Department of Geography (degree granting department)
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Tallahassee, Florida: Florida State University 2016
• Subjects: Physical geography; Geography; Meteorology; Pacific; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu%3A360354/datastream/TN/view/Spatial%20Analyses%20of%20Climatological%20Effects%20on%20Hurricane%20Intensification%20Rates.jpg

The aim of these studies is to determine spatial climatological effects on hurricane intensification rates. Previous studies have noted that the skill in predict a hurricane's track has improved at a much greater rate than the skill to predict its intensity. There is even less research concerning hurricane intensification rates, let alone research done spatially and climatologically. Therefore, the research herein aims to understand what drives hurricane intensification rates. This is done by using spatial climatological analyses to determine the effects that intensity, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), ocean heat content (OHC), El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have on hurricane intensification rates. Using both equal-area hexagons and raster techniques, hurricane track data is plotted spatially. SST, ocean salinity, and OHC values are also represented on a spatial grid. Finally, climate variables are represented temporally as mean yearly values. A generalized linear model from a gamma family and a logarithmic link function, as well as a full probability model are used to determine the effects that the variables of interest have on hurricane intensification rates. It is found that intensity has a positive effect on hurricane intensification rates with an average increase of 0.024 ± 0.0032 m s⁻¹ in intensification for a 1 m s⁻¹ increase in intensity. SST is also found to have a positive effect on intensification rates with an average increase in hurricane intensification of 16% for a 1° C increase in mean SST. It is also found that decreased salinity may have a positive effect on hurricane intensification rates by inhibiting vertical mixing. In the North Atlantic basin, it is found that the NAO has a negative effect on intensification rates of ‒0.18 m s⁻¹ h⁻¹ per 1 SD, while ENSO and MJO do not have a statistically significant effect. In the Eastern North Pacific basin, it is found that both the NAO ...