An Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Motion

• Other Authors: Laurencin, Chelsey Nakita (authoraut)
• Format: Bachelor Thesis
• Language: English
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_libsubv1_scholarship_submission_1493168400; http://fsu.digital.flvc.org/islandora/object/fsu%3A407363/datastream/TN/view/Analysis%20of%20North%20Atlantic%20Tropical%20Cyclone%20Motion.jpg

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have been widely researched in attempt to improve their predictability and the general atmospheric influence on their intensity and motion. This study analyzes North Atlantic TC translation in terms of the phase and strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP). The composite steering flow is also examined to consider its effect on TC geographic location and seasonality for these anomalous variations. The data is from the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Database (HURDAT) and uses 27 years of 6-hourly TC fixes from 1988 to 2014. It is found that the highest frequency of TCs occur in the speed range of 10 – 20 mi/hr for both phases of the ENSO and AWP. The fastest moving (> 55 mi/hr) TCs occur during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (September and October) and at latitudes between 35°N and 55°N. With regard to ENSO, cold relative to warm years showed an increase in TC frequency over all ranges of translation speed, with the largest difference for TCs traveling 10 – 20 mi/hr. The large relative to small phase of the AWP likewise showed an overall increase in TC frequency for all speed ranges, though the fractional difference between AWP phases was close in magnitude for the four most frequent speed ranges. This suggests that the AWP has a stronger influence on Atlantic TC translation than ENSO over a larger range of speeds.