Evaluation of contemporary ocean wave models in rare extreme events: The "halloween storm" of October 1991 and the "storm of the century" of March 1993

• Main Authors: Cardone, Vincent J., Jensen, Robert E., Resio, Donald T., Swail, Val R., Cox, Andrew T.
• Format: Other/Unknown Material
• Language: English
• Published: 1996
• Subjects: Newfoundland; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/11141/2221; https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(1996)013<0198:EOCOWM>2.0.CO;2

ESS, storm, wavelenght, model, Two recent severe extratropical storms, the "Halloween storm" of October 26-November 2 1991 (HOS) and the storm of the century" (SOC) of March 12-15 1993, are characterized by measurements of sea states of unprecedented magnitude off the east coast of North America. A Canadian buoy moored in deep water south of Nova Scotia recorded peak significant wave heights (HS) exceeding 16 m in both storms. In SOC, a NOAA buoy moored southeast of Cape Hatteras recorded a peak HS of 15.7 m, a record high for NOAA buoys. These extreme storm seas (ESS) exceed existing estimates of the 100-yr estimated design wave in these regions by about 50%. The extensive wave measurements made in both storms from buoys moored in deep water provide a rare opportunity to validate modem ocean wave models in wave regimes far more severe than those used for model tuning. In this study, four widely applied spectral wave models (OWI1G, Resio2G, WAM4, and OWI3G) are adapted to the western North Atlantic basin on fine mesh grids and are driven by common wind fields developed for each storm using careful manual kinematic reanalysis. The alternative wave hindcasts are evaluated against time series of measured HS and dominant wave period obtained at nine U.S. and Canadian buoys moored in deep water between offshore Georgia and Newfoundland. In general, it was found that despite the large differences in model formulation, the hindcasts were almost uniformly skillful in specification of the evolution of wave height and period in these two storms. The skill was much greater than achieved routinely in real time wave analyses provided by some of these same models operating at U.S., Canadian, and European centers, confirming that at least for these particular models, typically large errors in operational surface marine wind field analyses are the dominant source of errors in operational wave analyses and forecasts. However, all models were found to systematically underpredict the magnitude of the peak sea states in both ...