Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier
A cold hanging glacier located on the south face of the Grandes Jorasses (Mont Blanc, Italy) broke off on the 23 and 29 September 2014 with a total estimated ice volume of 105000m3. Thanks to accurate surface displacement measurements taken up to the final break-off, this event was successfully pred...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus
2016
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/118862 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000118862 |
| Summary: | A cold hanging glacier located on the south face of the Grandes Jorasses (Mont Blanc, Italy) broke off on the 23 and 29 September 2014 with a total estimated ice volume of 105000m3. Thanks to accurate surface displacement measurements taken up to the final break-off, this event was successfully predicted 10 days in advance, enabling local authorities to take the necessary safety measures. The break-off event also confirmed that surface displacements experienced a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture. This paper describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time and demonstrates, using a retrospective analysis, their potential for the development of early-warning systems in real time. ISSN:1994-0416 ISSN:1994-0424 |
|---|