Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models

• Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• Main Authors: Anstey, James, A, Simpson, Isla, R, Richter, Jadwiga, H, Naoe, Hiroaki, Taguchi, Masakazu, Serva, Federico, Gray, Lesley, J, Butchart, Neal, Hamilton, Kevin, Osprey, Scott, Bellprat, Omar, Braesicke, Peter, Bushell, Andrew, C, Cagnazzo, Chiara, Chen, Chih‐chieh, Chun, Hye‐yeong, Garcia, Rolando, R, Holt, Laura, Kawatani, Yoshio, Kerzenmacher, Tobias, Kim, Young‐ha, Lott, Francois, Mclandress, Charles, Scinocca, John, Stockdale, Timothy, N, Versick, Stefan, Watanabe, Shingo, Yoshida, Kohei, Yukimoto, Seiji
• Other Authors: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR), Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Aichi University of Education, Istituto di Science Marine (ISMAR ), National Research Council of Italy, NCAS-Climate Reading, Department of Meteorology Reading, University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, University of Hawai'i Honolulu (UH), Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC-CNS), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Yonsei University, NorthWest Research Associates Boulder (NWRA), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Institut für Atmosphäre und Umwelt Frankfurt/Main (IAU), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2021
• Subjects: North Atlantic Oscillation; polar vortex; Quasi-Biennial Oscillation; seasonal forecasting; stratosphere; stratosphere-troposphere coupling; teleconnection; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; Pacific; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695; https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695/document; https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03266695/file/qj.4048.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048

International audience The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet.