Future intensification of extreme Aleutian low events and their climate impacts

• Published in: Scientific Reports
• Main Authors: Giamalaki, K., Beaulieu, C., Henson, S., A, Martin, A., P, Kassem, H., Faranda, Davide
• Other Authors: Ocean and Earth Science Southampton, University of Southampton-National Oceanography Centre (NOC), University of California Santa Cruz (UC Santa Cruz), University of California (UC), National Oceanography Centre Southampton (NOC), University of Southampton, Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Funding for K.G. and C.B. was partially provided by Marie Curie FP7 Reintegration Grants within the SeventhEuropean Community Framework (Grant No. 631466-TROPHYZ).
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2021
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; Pacific; aleutian low
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03345492; https://hal.science/hal-03345492/document; https://hal.science/hal-03345492/file/s41598-021-97615-7.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97615-7

International audience Extreme Aleutian Low (AL) events have been associated with major ecosystem reorganisations and unusual weather patterns in the Pacific region, with serious socio-economic consequences. Yet, their future evolution and impacts on atmosphere–ocean interactions remain uncertain. Here, a large ensemble of historical and future runs from the Community Earth System Model is used to investigate the evolution of AL extremes. The frequency and persistence of AL extremes are quantified and their connection with climatic variables is examined. AL extremes become more frequent and persistent under the RCP8.5 scenario, associated with changes in precipitation and air temperature patterns over North America. Future changes in AL extremes also increase the variability of the sea surface temperature and net heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, the most significant heat and energy flux region of the basin. The increased frequency and persistence of future AL extremes may potentially cause substantial changes in fisheries and ecosystems of the entire Pacific region as a knock-on effect.