Simulating the efficacy of wolf–dog hybridization management with individual‐based modeling

• Published in: Conservation Biology
• Main Authors: Santostasi, Nina, Luisa, Bauduin, Sarah, Grente, Oksana, Gimenez, Olivier, Ciucci, Paolo
• Other Authors: Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University Rome (UNIROMA), Office français de la biodiversité (OFB), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Université de Montpellier (UM)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2024
• Subjects: Canis lupus; hybridization; individual-based model; management; population dynamics; projection modeling; [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology; [SDV.BA.ZV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Animal biology/Vertebrate Zoology; [SDV.BID.EVO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE]
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04652714; https://hal.science/hal-04652714/document; https://hal.science/hal-04652714/file/Santostasi%20et%20al.%202024%20Simulating%20the%20efficacy%20of%20wolf%E2%80%93dog%20hybridization%20management%20with%20individual-based%20modeling.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14312

International audience Introgressive hybridization between wolves and dogs is a conservation concern due to its potentially deleterious long‐term evolutionary consequences. European legislation requires that wolf–dog hybridization be mitigated through effective management. We developed an individual‐based model (IBM) to simulate the life cycle of gray wolves that incorporates aspects of wolf sociality that affect hybridization rates (e.g., the dissolution of packs after the death of one/both breeders) with the goal of informing decision‐making on management of wolf–dog hybridization. We applied our model by projecting hybridization dynamics in a local wolf population under different mate choice and immigration scenarios and contrasted results of removal of admixed individuals with their sterilization and release. In several scenarios, lack of management led to complete admixture, whereas reactive management interventions effectively reduced admixture in wolf populations. Management effectiveness, however, strongly depended on mate choice and number and admixture level of individuals immigrating into the wolf population. The inclusion of anthropogenic mortality affecting parental and admixed individuals (e.g., poaching) increased the probability of pack dissolution and thus increased the probability of interbreeding with dogs or admixed individuals and boosted hybridization and introgression rates in all simulation scenarios. Recognizing the necessity of additional model refinements (appropriate parameterization, thorough sensitivity analyses, and robust model validation) to generate management recommendations applicable in real‐world scenarios, we maintain confidence in our model's potential as a valuable conservation tool that can be applied to diverse situations and species facing similar threats. Simulación de la eficiencia de la gestión de híbridos de perro y lobo con modelos basados en individuos Resumen La hibridación introgresiva entre perros y lobos es un tema de conservación por las posibles ...