Appraisal of Airport Alternatives in Greenland by the use of Risk Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation

• Main Authors: Salling, Kim Bang, Leleur, Steen
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: iel 2007
• Subjects: Transport Appraisal; Monte Carlo Simulation; Risk Analysis; Decision Support System; Greenland; Sav’
• Online Access: https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/f806337b-9b8a-46fe-ab66-c10322da0416

This paper presents an appraisal study of three different airport proposals in Greenland by the use of an adapted version of the Danish CBA-DK model. The assessment model is based on both a deterministic calculation by the use of conventional cost-benefit analysis and a stochastic calculation, where risk analysis is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility risk adopted in the model is based on assigning probability distributions to the uncer-tain model parameters. Two probability distributions are presented, the Erlang and normal distribution respectively assigned to the construction cost and the travel time sav-ings. The obtained model results aim to provide an input to informed decision-making based on an account of the level of desired risk as concerns feasibility risks. This level is presented as the probability of obtaining at least a benefit-cost ratio of a specified value. Finally, some conclusions and a perspective are presented.