Model-based estimates of reference points in an age-based state-space stock assessment model

Reference points are central in the current management of marine living resources. However, reference points are estimated from data and model estimates. Therefore, they are inherently uncertain. We present two objective methods for estimating reference points and quantifying their uncertainty. The...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:Fisheries Research
Main Authors: Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard, Trijoulet, Vanessa
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2020
Subjects:
MSY
Per-reqruit
Recruitment models
Frederence points
Stock assessment
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water
name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water
Arctic cod
Arctic
Northeast Arctic cod
Online Access:https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/d09dece8-9ad0-4b4b-ac84-c84b542980e8
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105618
https://backend.orbit.dtu.dk/ws/files/217781241/albertsen2020a_postprint.pdf
Description
Summary:Reference points are central in the current management of marine living resources. However, reference points are estimated from data and model estimates. Therefore, they are inherently uncertain. We present two objective methods for estimating reference points and quantifying their uncertainty. The first method uses per-recruit calculations, while the second method relies on a long-term forecast of the managed system. Confidence intervals are calculated through a combination of the implicit function theorem and the delta method. Both methods are illustrated for 12 recruitment models using data from the Northeast Arctic cod assessment. Finally, the methods are validated in a simulation study.

Similar Items