Validation Test Report for the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System as a Fractures/Leads and Polynyas Product

• Main Authors: Crout, Julia W, Posey, Pamela G
• Other Authors: NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS DETACHMENT STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS OCEANOGRAPHY DIV
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2015
• Subjects: Snow; Ice and Permafrost; *ICE OPENINGS; *VALIDATION; ARCTIC OCEAN; DRIFT; FORECASTING; ICE BREAKUP; ICE FORECASTING; ICE MECHANICS; OCEAN MODELS; OPENING(PROCESS); RADAR IMAGES; RATES; SEA ICE; SHEAR PROPERTIES; STRAIN RATE; THICKNESS; CICE(COMMUNITY ICE CODE); HYCOM(HYBRID COORDINATE OCEAN MODEL); ICE COVER; ICE DYNAMICS; ICE FRACTURING; ICE MOTION; LEAD OPENING; LEAD OPENING VALIDATION; SEA ICE FORECASTING SYSTEM; PE0603207N; WU73-9066-04-5; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Ice; permafrost; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA621886; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA621886

This document serves as the Validation Test Report (VTR) for the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS) ability to capture and predict sea ice areas of opening Fractures/Leads, And Polynyas (FLAP). ACNFS calculates motion rates (opening/ closing, ridging, divergence, and shear) in addition to numerous other products such as ice concentration, ice thickness, and ice drift. A combination of these parameters is used to produce a product of opening rates that represent areas of FLAPs. This VTR documents a series of comparison studies performed using ACNFS strain rate fields and validates the opening rate products against an 11 month period of National Ice Center (NIC) FLAP messages from January through November 2012. Forecasted ACNFS fields are evaluated for the period of February through June 2014 on daily 24 hours through 7-day forecasts. Additional comparisons are shown for ICEX-2014. This validation assessment was performed using ACNFS with some limited comparisons with the Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS 3.1). GOFS 3.1 uses the same ocean model coupling and sea ice model as ACNFS and is expected to perform similarly. Overall, ACNFS along with GOFS 3.1 provided a reasonable prediction of the openings not available elsewhere in both the nowcast and forecast mode and performed better than persistence. The original document contains color images. Prepared in collaboration with Vencore Services and Solutions, Inc., Reston, VA.