North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study Phase I: Statistical Analysis of Historical Extreme Water Levels with Sea Level Change

The U.S. North Atlantic coast is subject to coastal flooding as a result of both severe extratropical storms (e.g., Nor easters) and tropical cyclones (hurricanes). The North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) seeks to quantify existing and future forcing for use in assessing potential engin...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Nadal-Caraballo, Norberto C, Melby, Jeffrey A
Other Authors: ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER VICKSBURG MS COASTAL AND HYDRAULICS LAB
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 2014
Subjects:
Physical and Dynamic Oceanography
Geodesy
Hydrology
Limnology and Potamology
Civil Engineering
*COASTAL ENGINEERING
*COASTAL REGIONS
*FLOODING
*SEA LEVEL
*STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
ATLANTIC OCEAN
HAZARDS
LIFE CYCLES
MONTE CARLO METHOD
PEAK VALUES
PROBABILITY
SCENARIOS
SURGES
TIDES
TROPICAL CYCLONES
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTIONS
FLOOD HAZARDS
MCLC(MONTE CARLO LIFE-CYCLE)
POT(PEAKS OVER THRESHOLD)
PROBABILISTIC FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS
SLC(SEA LEVEL CHANGE)
SLR(SEA LEVEL RISE)
STORM SURGE
WATER LEVELS
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST
NACCS(NORTH ATLANTIC COAST COMPREHENSIVE STUDY)
GPD(GENERALIZED PARETO DISTRIBUTION)
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA611642
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA611642
Description
Summary:The U.S. North Atlantic coast is subject to coastal flooding as a result of both severe extratropical storms (e.g., Nor easters) and tropical cyclones (hurricanes). The North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) seeks to quantify existing and future forcing for use in assessing potential engineering projects that would reduce flooding risk and increase resiliency. The study encompasses the coastal region from Virginia to Maine. Extreme water levels as a function of return period were estimated for 23 gages spanning the northeast coast region. Continuous parametric distributions as well as empirical extremal distributions were computed as part of the statistical analysis. The extreme water level results based on historical data are shown to agree well with those computed by NOAA. Return period results for a range of sea level rise scenarios are presented as mean distributions as well as 10% and 90% confidence limits. Estimates of future extreme water levels due to sea level change represent the expected levels at the end of the 100-year horizon between 2015 and 2114. The original document contains color images.

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