Integrated Climate Change and Threatened Bird Population Modeling to Mitigate Operations Risks on Florida Military Installations

• Main Authors: Linkov, Igor, Fischer, Richard A, Kiker, Gregory A, Munoz-Carpena, Rafael, Convertino, Matteo, Linhoss, Anna, Aiello-Lammens, Matthew, Martinez, Christopher, Akcakaya, Resit, Ginzburg, Lev
• Other Authors: ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER VICKSBURG MS ENVIRONMENTAL LAB
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2013
• Subjects: Biology; Ecology; Logistics; Military Facilities and Supplies; Environmental Health and Safety; *BIRDS; *CLIMATE CHANGE; *COASTAL REGIONS; *ENDANGERED SPECIES; *HABITATS; *MILITARY FACILITIES; DECISION MAKING; FLORIDA; LAND USE; MEXICO GULF; MODELS; MONITORING; PREDICTIONS; RESOURCE MANAGEMENT; SEA LEVEL; SIMULATION; UNCERTAINTY; ALTERNATIVES; HABITAT SUITABILITY; LAND-COVER; METAPOPULATION RISE; SEA LEVEL RISE; SNOWY PLOVERS; STAKEHOLDERS; TER-S(THREATENED ENDANGERED AND AT-RISK SPECIES); PIPING PLOVERS; RED KNOTS; Calidris canutus; Red Knot
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA600408; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA600408

Climate change is expected to significantly alter low-lying coastal and intertidal areas, which provide important seasonal habitat for a variety of shoreline-dependent organisms. This project developed a set of habitat- and species-based models for the coastal Threatened, Endangered, and At-Risk Species (TER-S): Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus), Piping Plover (C. melodus), and Red Knot (Calidris canutus). The models were used to predict risk to the TER-S under different climate change scenarios in Eglin and Tyndall Air Force Bases (AFB) and surrounding areas. The model predictions and site use data were utilized in a risk-informed, multi-criteria decision analysis framework to allow systematic evaluation of management options at Eglin and Tyndall. Overall, projected habitat types at Eglin AFB are more stable over time than Tyndall AFB or the whole Gulf Coast of Florida. The Gulf Coast simulations show that the Snowy Plover population size will decline faster than the area of habitat or carrying capacity. MCDA returned variable results in ranking preferred management alternatives because of the uncertainty in the system. Beach nourishment and exclosures were the preferred management alternatives and no action was the least preferred. The integrated modeling and management framework developed in this study can be generalized to other coastal facilities and environmental management needs. Prepared in collaboration with the USACE ERDC, Environmental Laboratory, Risk and Decision Science Team, Concord, MA, the Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, the Department of Ecology and Evolution, State University of New York, Stony Brook, the Florida Climate Institute, Gainesville, FL, and Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY.