Breaking the Ice: Potential U.S.-Russian Maritime Conflict in the Arctic

• Main Author: Aerandir, Mate W
• Other Authors: NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2012
• Subjects: Economics and Cost Analysis; Government and Political Science; Geography; Defense Systems; *ARCTIC OCEAN; *COMPETITION; *CONFLICT; *GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN); *INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS; *RISK ANALYSIS; *RUSSIA; *UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT; AGREEMENTS; ARCTIC REGIONS; CANADA; CHINA; COAST GUARD; COOPERATION; DENMARK; DETERRENCE; ECONOMIC WARFARE; JAPAN; NATO; NATURAL RESOURCES; NAVY; NORWAY; THESES; THREATS; UNITED NATIONS; *MARITIME CONFLICT POTENTIAL; *TERRITORIAL DISPUTES; *RESOURCE DISPUTES; ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE; INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS; UNCLOS(UNITED NATIONS CONVENTION ON THE LAW OF THE SEA); CLCS(COMMISSION ON THE LIMITS OF THE CONTINENTAL SHELF); NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL; ARCTIC COUNCIL; PEACEFUL DISPUTE RESOLUTION; MILITARIZED CONFLICT; USE OF FORCE; EEZ(EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONES); Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Canada; Norway; Arctic Council; Law of the Sea
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA573497; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA573497

While war in the Arctic appears unlikely at present, this thesis analyzes why an escalation of territorial and resource disputes in the Arctic, up to and including the use of force, cannot and should not be ruled out. The thesis examines the political, economic, and military interests of the main Arctic powers -- Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, and the United States -- to set the scene for an assessment of the factors that could make for cooperation or conflict. Advocates of a Pax Arctica involving regional cooperation underrate the more pragmatic and competitive factors underlying international relations and the actual limits of international institutions and economic interdependence in restraining behavior in an anarchic system. The potential for U.S.-Russian maritime conflict in the region is genuine. Based on the methodology established for this analysis, it can be reasonably assessed that conflict in the Arctic is likely. No time horizon can be determined, however, because much depends on decisions made (or not made) by these same Arctic powers in the coming decades.