Understanding Recent Variability in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover -- Synthesis of Model Results and Observations

• Main Author: Whelan, John
• Other Authors: NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2007
• Subjects: Atmospheric Physics; Physical and Dynamic Oceanography; Geography; Snow; Ice and Permafrost; *MEASUREMENT; *THICKNESS; *SEA ICE; *ARCTIC OCEAN; *SEASONAL VARIATIONS; *CHANGE DETECTION; NAVY; MELTING; PATTERNS; SUBMARINES; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; AUTUMN; SPRING SEASON; SONAR ARRAYS; ARCTIC REGIONS; SUMMER; OCEAN MODELS; NAVAL OPERATIONS; DATA ACQUISITION; THESES; ICE FORMATION; OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA; POLAR OCEANOGRAPHY; ARCTIC ICE PACK; *ICE THICKNESS; ARCTIC OCEAN MODELING; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL PAN-ARCTIC COUPLED ICE-OCEAN MODEL; SUBMARINE UPWARD-LOOKING SONAR; CLIMATE CHANGE; ICE THINNING; *TREND ANALYSIS; WESTERN ARCTIC; EASTERN ARCTIC; GLOBAL WARMING; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Climate change; Global warming; Ice; ice pack; permafrost; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA474361; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA474361

This thesis provides a continuation of the analysis of the diminishing sea ice trend in the Arctic Ocean by examining results from the NPS 1/12 degree pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean model. While many previous studies have analyzed changes in ice extent and concentration, this research focuses on ice thickness as it gives a better representation of ice volume variability. The skill of the model is examined by comparing its ice thickness output to actual sea ice thickness data gathered during the last three decades. The model comparison is made against the most recently released collection of Arctic ice draft measurements conducted by U.S. Navy submarines between 1979 and 2000. The NPS model indicates an accelerated thinning trend in Arctic sea ice during the last decade. The validation of model output with submarine upward-looking sonar data supports this result. This lends credence to the postulation that the Arctic is likely to be ice-free during the summer in the near future. The diminishing Arctic sea ice will have significant implications for both the physical and operational environment in which the U.S. Navy currently operates. The original document contains color images.