Understanding Recent Variability in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover -- Synthesis of Model Results and Observations

This thesis provides a continuation of the analysis of the diminishing sea ice trend in the Arctic Ocean by examining results from the NPS 1/12 degree pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean model. While many previous studies have analyzed changes in ice extent and concentration, this research focuses on ice t...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Whelan, John
Other Authors: NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 2007
Subjects:
Atmospheric Physics
Physical and Dynamic Oceanography
Geography
Snow
Ice and Permafrost
*MEASUREMENT
*THICKNESS
*SEA ICE
*ARCTIC OCEAN
*SEASONAL VARIATIONS
*CHANGE DETECTION
NAVY
MELTING
PATTERNS
SUBMARINES
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
AUTUMN
SPRING SEASON
SONAR ARRAYS
ARCTIC REGIONS
SUMMER
OCEAN MODELS
NAVAL OPERATIONS
DATA ACQUISITION
THESES
ICE FORMATION
OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA
POLAR OCEANOGRAPHY
ARCTIC ICE PACK
*ICE THICKNESS
ARCTIC OCEAN MODELING
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL PAN-ARCTIC COUPLED ICE-OCEAN MODEL
SUBMARINE UPWARD-LOOKING SONAR
CLIMATE CHANGE
ICE THINNING
*TREND ANALYSIS
WESTERN ARCTIC
EASTERN ARCTIC
GLOBAL WARMING
Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Climate change
Global warming
Ice
ice pack
permafrost
Sea ice
Online Access:http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA474361
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA474361
Description
Summary:This thesis provides a continuation of the analysis of the diminishing sea ice trend in the Arctic Ocean by examining results from the NPS 1/12 degree pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean model. While many previous studies have analyzed changes in ice extent and concentration, this research focuses on ice thickness as it gives a better representation of ice volume variability. The skill of the model is examined by comparing its ice thickness output to actual sea ice thickness data gathered during the last three decades. The model comparison is made against the most recently released collection of Arctic ice draft measurements conducted by U.S. Navy submarines between 1979 and 2000. The NPS model indicates an accelerated thinning trend in Arctic sea ice during the last decade. The validation of model output with submarine upward-looking sonar data supports this result. This lends credence to the postulation that the Arctic is likely to be ice-free during the summer in the near future. The diminishing Arctic sea ice will have significant implications for both the physical and operational environment in which the U.S. Navy currently operates. The original document contains color images.

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