A Probability Tree Applied to a Common Zebra Mussel Dispersal Issue

• Main Authors: Payne, Barry S., Miller, Andrew C.
• Other Authors: ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER VICKSBURG MS
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2004
• Subjects: Ecology; Environmental Health and Safety; *UNCERTAINTY; *MUSSELS; *ECOLOGY; DECISION MAKING; PROBABILITY; DECISION THEORY; KENTUCKY; MISSISSIPPI RIVER; DIAGRAMS; NORTHWEST TERRITORIES; ARKANSAS RIVER; ANSRP(AQUATIC NUISANCE SPECIES); *ZEBRA MUSSEL DISPERSAL; *PROBABILITY TREES; PHYSIOLOGICAL ECOLOGY; ZEBRA MUSSELS; *DREISSENA POLYMORPHA; DECISION ANALYSES; MIDWEST; Northwest Territories
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA423721; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA423721

The purpose of this technical note is to show how a probability tree can be used to structure consideration of uncertainties surrounding zebra mussel dispersal. Probability trees are diagrammatic tools often used as part of formal decision analysis (Clemens and Reilly 2001). This particular tree considers uncertainties about the spread of zebra mussels to Bayou Bartholomew in light of existing data and knowledge concerning the physiological ecology of the species. This specific example is a useful model for similar projects involving potential spread of an invasive species. Probability trees help structure the consideration of uncertainty, communicate information and assumptions, and thus provide a tractable analysis.