A Probability Tree Applied to a Common Zebra Mussel Dispersal Issue

The purpose of this technical note is to show how a probability tree can be used to structure consideration of uncertainties surrounding zebra mussel dispersal. Probability trees are diagrammatic tools often used as part of formal decision analysis (Clemens and Reilly 2001). This particular tree con...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Payne, Barry S., Miller, Andrew C.
Other Authors: ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER VICKSBURG MS
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 2004
Subjects:
Ecology
Environmental Health and Safety
*UNCERTAINTY
*MUSSELS
*ECOLOGY
DECISION MAKING
PROBABILITY
DECISION THEORY
KENTUCKY
MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DIAGRAMS
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
ARKANSAS RIVER
ANSRP(AQUATIC NUISANCE SPECIES)
*ZEBRA MUSSEL DISPERSAL
*PROBABILITY TREES
PHYSIOLOGICAL ECOLOGY
ZEBRA MUSSELS
*DREISSENA POLYMORPHA
DECISION ANALYSES
MIDWEST
Northwest Territories
Online Access:http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA423721
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA423721
Description
Summary:The purpose of this technical note is to show how a probability tree can be used to structure consideration of uncertainties surrounding zebra mussel dispersal. Probability trees are diagrammatic tools often used as part of formal decision analysis (Clemens and Reilly 2001). This particular tree considers uncertainties about the spread of zebra mussels to Bayou Bartholomew in light of existing data and knowledge concerning the physiological ecology of the species. This specific example is a useful model for similar projects involving potential spread of an invasive species. Probability trees help structure the consideration of uncertainty, communicate information and assumptions, and thus provide a tractable analysis.

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